Modeling Smart Defense for Indonesia's Archipelagic Maritime Defense Strategy: A System Dynamics Approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.58526/jsret.v5i4.1261Keywords:
Smart Defense, Archipelagic Maritime Defense, Indonesian Navy, System Dynamics, Delphi Method, Fuzzy WeightingAbstract
This study develops a dynamic model for assessing and strengthening Smart Defense within Indonesia’s Archipelagic Maritime Defense Strategy (SPLN) in support of Indonesian Navy missions. The study addresses the complex interactions among technology, operational strategy, naval force posture, and threat perception in maritime defense capability development. A mixed methodological framework integrating Delphi assessment, Fuzzy Weighting, and System Dynamics was employed. Seven experts from relevant Indonesian Navy functions participated in the assessment. The Delphi process identified four principal dimensions: Technology, Operational Strategy, Indonesian Navy Posture, and Threat Perception. Fuzzy Weighting generated respective dimension weights of 0.27, 0.23, 0.26, and 0.24. These weights were incorporated into a System Dynamics model developed using Stella 9.1.3 and projected from 2023 to 2028. The baseline model shows that the Smart Defense capability index increases from 86.8% in 2023 to 88.8% in 2028, remaining within the Capable/Excellent category. Sensitivity analysis identifies Integrated System, Logistics, Integrated Fleet Weapon System (SSAT), and Maritime Cyber Security Threat as key variables. Among the policy scenarios, strengthening SSAT produces the largest improvement (+4.17%), followed by technological integration (+2.08%) and logistics (+0.27%).
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Copyright (c) 2026 Joko Purnomo, Okol Sri Suharyo, Sutikno Wahyu Hidayat, Eko Krisdiono
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